TY - JOUR
T1 - A Bayesian network methodology for optimal security management of critical infrastructures
AU - Misuri, Alessio
AU - Khakzad, Nima
AU - Reniers, Genserik
AU - Cozzani, Valerio
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - Security management of critical infrastructures is a complex task as a great variety of technical and socio-political information is needed to realistically predict the risk of intentional malevolent acts. In the present study, a methodology based on Limited Memory Influence Diagram (LIMID) has been developed for the protection of critical infrastructures via cost-effective allocation of security measures. LIMID is an extension of Bayesian network (BN) intended for decision-making, allowing for efficient modelling of complex systems while accounting for interdependencies and interaction of system components. The probability updating feature of BN has been used to investigate the effect of vulnerabilities on adversaries’ preferences when planning attacks. Moreover, the proposed methodology has been shown to be able to identify an optimal defensive strategy given an attack through maximizing defenders’ expected utility. Despite being demonstrated via a chemical facility, the methodology can easily be tailored to a wide variety of critical infrastructures.
AB - Security management of critical infrastructures is a complex task as a great variety of technical and socio-political information is needed to realistically predict the risk of intentional malevolent acts. In the present study, a methodology based on Limited Memory Influence Diagram (LIMID) has been developed for the protection of critical infrastructures via cost-effective allocation of security measures. LIMID is an extension of Bayesian network (BN) intended for decision-making, allowing for efficient modelling of complex systems while accounting for interdependencies and interaction of system components. The probability updating feature of BN has been used to investigate the effect of vulnerabilities on adversaries’ preferences when planning attacks. Moreover, the proposed methodology has been shown to be able to identify an optimal defensive strategy given an attack through maximizing defenders’ expected utility. Despite being demonstrated via a chemical facility, the methodology can easily be tailored to a wide variety of critical infrastructures.
KW - Cost-effectiveness analysis
KW - Critical infrastructures
KW - Decision support systems
KW - Limited memory influence diagram
KW - Security management
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85054054002&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2018.03.028
DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2018.03.028
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85054054002
SN - 0951-8320
VL - 191
JO - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
JF - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
M1 - 106112
ER -