TY - JOUR
T1 - A Markovian approach to power generation capacity assessment of floating wave energy converters
AU - Arzaghi, Ehsan
AU - Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi
AU - Abbassi, Rouzbeh
AU - O'Reilly, Malgorzata
AU - Garaniya, Vikram
AU - Penesis, Irene
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - The significant cost required for implementation of WEC sites and the uncertainty associated with their performance, due to the randomness of the marine environment, can bring critical challenges to the industry. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for predicting the long-term power generation of WECs. The developed method can be used by the operators and designers to optimize the performance of WECs by improving the design or in selecting optimum site locations. A Markov Chain model is constructed to estimate the stationary distribution of output power based on the results of hydrodynamic analyses on a point absorber WEC. To illustrate the application of the method, the performance of a point absorber is assessed in three locations in the south of Tasmania by considering their actual long-term sea state data. It is observed that location 3 provides the highest potential for energy extraction with a mean value for absorbed power of approximately 0.54MW, while the value for locations 1 and 2 is 0.33MW and 0.43MW respectively. The model estimated that location 3 has the capacity to satisfy industry requirement with probability 0.72, assuming that the production goal is to generate at least 0.5MW power.
AB - The significant cost required for implementation of WEC sites and the uncertainty associated with their performance, due to the randomness of the marine environment, can bring critical challenges to the industry. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for predicting the long-term power generation of WECs. The developed method can be used by the operators and designers to optimize the performance of WECs by improving the design or in selecting optimum site locations. A Markov Chain model is constructed to estimate the stationary distribution of output power based on the results of hydrodynamic analyses on a point absorber WEC. To illustrate the application of the method, the performance of a point absorber is assessed in three locations in the south of Tasmania by considering their actual long-term sea state data. It is observed that location 3 provides the highest potential for energy extraction with a mean value for absorbed power of approximately 0.54MW, while the value for locations 1 and 2 is 0.33MW and 0.43MW respectively. The model estimated that location 3 has the capacity to satisfy industry requirement with probability 0.72, assuming that the production goal is to generate at least 0.5MW power.
KW - Markov chain
KW - Power generation
KW - Probabilistic modelling
KW - Renewable energy
KW - Wave energy converter
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85071397190&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.renene.2019.08.099
DO - 10.1016/j.renene.2019.08.099
M3 - Article
SN - 0960-1481
VL - 146
SP - 2736
EP - 2743
JO - Renewable Energy
JF - Renewable Energy
ER -