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A model for the directional evolution of severe ocean storms. / Tendijck, S.; Ross, E.; Randell, D.; Jonathan, P.

In: Environmetrics, 2018, p. 1-14.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Harvard

Tendijck, S, Ross, E, Randell, D & Jonathan, P 2018, 'A model for the directional evolution of severe ocean storms' Environmetrics, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2541

APA

Tendijck, S., Ross, E., Randell, D., & Jonathan, P. (2018). A model for the directional evolution of severe ocean storms. Environmetrics, 1-14. [e2541]. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2541

Vancouver

Tendijck S, Ross E, Randell D, Jonathan P. A model for the directional evolution of severe ocean storms. Environmetrics. 2018;1-14. e2541. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2541

Author

Tendijck, S. ; Ross, E. ; Randell, D. ; Jonathan, P. / A model for the directional evolution of severe ocean storms. In: Environmetrics. 2018 ; pp. 1-14.

BibTeX

@article{e1d6a60701c24f46afd3beb82593b312,
title = "A model for the directional evolution of severe ocean storms",
abstract = "Motivated by recent work on Markov extremal models, we develop a nonstationary extension and use it to characterize the time evolution of extreme sea state significant wave height (HS) and storm direction in the vicinity of the storm peak sea state. The approach first requires transformation of HS from a physical to a standard Laplace scale achieved using a nonstationary directional marginal extreme value model. The evolution of Laplace-scale HS is subsequently characterized using a Markov extremal model and that of the rate of change of storm direction described by an autoregressive model, the evolution variance of which is HS-dependent. Simulations on the physical scale under the estimated model give realistic realizations of storm trajectories consistent with historical data for storm trajectories at a northern North Sea location.",
keywords = "extreme, Markov extremal model, nonstationary, significant wave height, storm trajectory",
author = "S. Tendijck and E. Ross and D. Randell and P. Jonathan",
year = "2018",
doi = "10.1002/env.2541",
language = "English",
pages = "1--14",
journal = "Environmetrics",
issn = "1180-4009",
publisher = "John Wiley & Sons",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A model for the directional evolution of severe ocean storms

AU - Tendijck, S.

AU - Ross, E.

AU - Randell, D.

AU - Jonathan, P.

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Motivated by recent work on Markov extremal models, we develop a nonstationary extension and use it to characterize the time evolution of extreme sea state significant wave height (HS) and storm direction in the vicinity of the storm peak sea state. The approach first requires transformation of HS from a physical to a standard Laplace scale achieved using a nonstationary directional marginal extreme value model. The evolution of Laplace-scale HS is subsequently characterized using a Markov extremal model and that of the rate of change of storm direction described by an autoregressive model, the evolution variance of which is HS-dependent. Simulations on the physical scale under the estimated model give realistic realizations of storm trajectories consistent with historical data for storm trajectories at a northern North Sea location.

AB - Motivated by recent work on Markov extremal models, we develop a nonstationary extension and use it to characterize the time evolution of extreme sea state significant wave height (HS) and storm direction in the vicinity of the storm peak sea state. The approach first requires transformation of HS from a physical to a standard Laplace scale achieved using a nonstationary directional marginal extreme value model. The evolution of Laplace-scale HS is subsequently characterized using a Markov extremal model and that of the rate of change of storm direction described by an autoregressive model, the evolution variance of which is HS-dependent. Simulations on the physical scale under the estimated model give realistic realizations of storm trajectories consistent with historical data for storm trajectories at a northern North Sea location.

KW - extreme

KW - Markov extremal model

KW - nonstationary

KW - significant wave height

KW - storm trajectory

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85055491315&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1002/env.2541

DO - 10.1002/env.2541

M3 - Article

SP - 1

EP - 14

JO - Environmetrics

T2 - Environmetrics

JF - Environmetrics

SN - 1180-4009

M1 - e2541

ER -

ID: 47301952