Abstract
Simulation modeling is useful to gain insights into driving mechanisms of diffusion of innovations. This study aims to introduce automation to make identification of such mechanisms with agent-based simulation modeling less costly in time and labor. We present a novel automation procedure in which the generation of diffusion models is automated. It comprises three phases: (1) preprocessing of empirical data on the diffusion of a specific innovation, taken out be the user; (2) automated inverse modeling of decision models from a decision model library for their capability of explaining these data; (3) policy simulation automatically assesses user-chosen policy interventions in their potential of influencing the spreading of the innovation. We present a working software implementation of this procedure. We applied this tool to data-analysis on the diffusion of a sustainable innovation, water-saving showerheads. The proposed procedure successfully generated simulation models that explained available diffusion data. This provided a proof of concept. Further, it progresses agent-based modeling by providing model validation by design and by enabling detailed bottom-down modeling at the lower complexity of top-down modeling. We believe the proposed approach can widen the circle of persons that can use simulation modeling and better understand and shape innovation.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Proceedings of 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software |
Pages | 1-8 |
Publication status | Published - 2016 |
Event | 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software - Toulouse, France Duration: 10 Jul 2016 → 14 Jul 2016 Conference number: 8 http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/iemssconference/2016 |
Conference
Conference | 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software |
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Abbreviated title | iEMSs |
Country/Territory | France |
City | Toulouse |
Period | 10/07/16 → 14/07/16 |
Internet address |
Keywords
- Agent-based modeling
- automation
- innovation diffusion
- data-analysis
- policy simulation