An approach for an operational vulnerability assessment for naval ships using a Markov model

An early stage assessment of the vulnerability of systems on board naval ships needs to be carried out in order to ensure that naval ships can execute their operational scenario after hits or other damage. However, the broad scope of operational scenarios and impact levels, the interdependencies between systems and their environment, and the dynamic nature of vulnerability complicate the execution of such an analysis. While current methods mainly assess whether systems are still available after hits, the eventual question is whether the operational scenario can still be executed. An approach with a Markov chain is proposed to handle these complexities in early stage design. This paper specifically focusses on the effect of interactions between systems on vulnerability. It is shown that the fact that multiple systems are placed together in a layout already influences the vulnerability of the ship, regardless if they are related from a physical or logical point of view or not. Furthermore, the need for an integrated approach instead of assessing each system individually is demonstrated and quantified. The results of this methodology can be used by designers to make substantiated design choices with regard to prioritization of the different ship functions after hits. © 2018 Taylor & Francis Group, London.