TY - JOUR
T1 - Automating agent-based modeling
T2 - Data-driven generation and application of innovation diffusion models
AU - Jensen, Thorben
AU - Chappin, Émile J.L.
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - Simulation modeling is useful to understand the mechanisms of the diffusion of innovations, which can be used for forecasting the future of innovations. This study aims to make the identification of such mechanisms less costly in time and labor. We present an approach that automates the generation of diffusion models by: (1) preprocessing of empirical data on the diffusion of a specific innovation, taken out by the user; (2) testing variations of agent-based models for their capability of explaining the data; (3) assessing interventions for their potential to influence the spreading of the innovation. We present a working software implementation of this procedure and apply it to the diffusion of water-saving showerheads. The presented procedure successfully generated simulation models that explained diffusion data. This progresses agent-based modeling methodologically by enabling detailed modeling at relative simplicity for users. This widens the circle of persons that can use simulation to shape innovation.
AB - Simulation modeling is useful to understand the mechanisms of the diffusion of innovations, which can be used for forecasting the future of innovations. This study aims to make the identification of such mechanisms less costly in time and labor. We present an approach that automates the generation of diffusion models by: (1) preprocessing of empirical data on the diffusion of a specific innovation, taken out by the user; (2) testing variations of agent-based models for their capability of explaining the data; (3) assessing interventions for their potential to influence the spreading of the innovation. We present a working software implementation of this procedure and apply it to the diffusion of water-saving showerheads. The presented procedure successfully generated simulation models that explained diffusion data. This progresses agent-based modeling methodologically by enabling detailed modeling at relative simplicity for users. This widens the circle of persons that can use simulation to shape innovation.
KW - Agent-based modeling
KW - Automated model generation
KW - Data-analysis tool
KW - Diffusion of innovations
KW - Policy simulation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85014861136&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.02.018
DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.02.018
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85014861136
SN - 1364-8152
VL - 92
SP - 261
EP - 268
JO - Environmental Modelling & Software
JF - Environmental Modelling & Software
ER -