TY - JOUR
T1 - Bone texture analysis for prediction of incident radiographic hip osteoarthritis using machine learning
T2 - data from the Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee (CHECK) study
AU - Hirvasniemi, J.
AU - Gielis, W. P.
AU - Arbabi, S.
AU - Agricola, R.
AU - van Spil, W. E.
AU - Arbabi, V.
AU - Weinans, H.
N1 - Accepted Author Manuscript
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - Objective: To assess the ability of radiography-based bone texture variables in proximal femur and acetabulum to predict incident radiographic hip osteoarthritis (rHOA) over a 10 years period. Design: Pelvic radiographs from CHECK at baseline (987 hips) were analyzed for bone texture using fractal signature analysis (FSA) in proximal femur and acetabulum. Elastic net (machine learning) was used to predict the incidence of rHOA (including Kellgren–Lawrence grade (KL) ≥ 2 or total hip replacement (THR)), joint space narrowing score (JSN, range 0–3), and osteophyte score (OST, range 0–3) after 10 years. Performance of prediction models was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC). Results: Of the 987 hips without rHOA at baseline, 435 (44%) had rHOA at 10-year follow-up. Of the 667 hips with JSN grade 0 at baseline, 471 (71%) had JSN grade ≥ 1 at 10-year follow-up. Of the 613 hips with OST grade 0 at baseline, 526 (86%) had OST grade ≥ 1 at 10-year follow-up. AUCs for the models including age, gender, and body mass index (BMI) to predict incident rHOA, JSN, and OST were 0.59, 0.54, and 0.51, respectively. The inclusion of bone texture variables in the models improved the prediction of incident rHOA (ROC AUC 0.68 and 0.71 when baseline KL was also included in the model) and JSN (ROC AUC 0.62), but not incident OST (ROC AUC 0.52). Conclusion: Bone texture analysis provides additional information for predicting incident rHOA or THR over 10 years.
AB - Objective: To assess the ability of radiography-based bone texture variables in proximal femur and acetabulum to predict incident radiographic hip osteoarthritis (rHOA) over a 10 years period. Design: Pelvic radiographs from CHECK at baseline (987 hips) were analyzed for bone texture using fractal signature analysis (FSA) in proximal femur and acetabulum. Elastic net (machine learning) was used to predict the incidence of rHOA (including Kellgren–Lawrence grade (KL) ≥ 2 or total hip replacement (THR)), joint space narrowing score (JSN, range 0–3), and osteophyte score (OST, range 0–3) after 10 years. Performance of prediction models was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC). Results: Of the 987 hips without rHOA at baseline, 435 (44%) had rHOA at 10-year follow-up. Of the 667 hips with JSN grade 0 at baseline, 471 (71%) had JSN grade ≥ 1 at 10-year follow-up. Of the 613 hips with OST grade 0 at baseline, 526 (86%) had OST grade ≥ 1 at 10-year follow-up. AUCs for the models including age, gender, and body mass index (BMI) to predict incident rHOA, JSN, and OST were 0.59, 0.54, and 0.51, respectively. The inclusion of bone texture variables in the models improved the prediction of incident rHOA (ROC AUC 0.68 and 0.71 when baseline KL was also included in the model) and JSN (ROC AUC 0.62), but not incident OST (ROC AUC 0.52). Conclusion: Bone texture analysis provides additional information for predicting incident rHOA or THR over 10 years.
KW - Bone texture
KW - Hip osteoarthritis
KW - Machine learning
KW - Prediction
KW - Radiography
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85062906285&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.joca.2019.02.796
DO - 10.1016/j.joca.2019.02.796
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85062906285
SN - 1063-4584
VL - 27
SP - 906
EP - 914
JO - Osteoarthritis and Cartilage
JF - Osteoarthritis and Cartilage
IS - 6
ER -