TY - JOUR
T1 - Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty
AU - Kwakkel, Jan H.
AU - Haasnoot, Marjolijn
AU - Walker, Warren E.
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands, and compare them with respect to the required tooling, the resulting decision relevant insights, and the resulting plans. The results indicate that the two approaches are complementary. Robust Decision-Making offers insights into conditions under which problems occur, and makes trade-offs transparent. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach emphasizes dynamic adaptation over time, and thus offers a natural way for handling the vulnerabilities identified through Robust Decision-Making. The application also makes clear that the analytical process of Robust Decision-Making is path-dependent and open ended: an analyst has to make many choices, for which Robust Decision-Making offers no direct guidance.
AB - A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands, and compare them with respect to the required tooling, the resulting decision relevant insights, and the resulting plans. The results indicate that the two approaches are complementary. Robust Decision-Making offers insights into conditions under which problems occur, and makes trade-offs transparent. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach emphasizes dynamic adaptation over time, and thus offers a natural way for handling the vulnerabilities identified through Robust Decision-Making. The application also makes clear that the analytical process of Robust Decision-Making is path-dependent and open ended: an analyst has to make many choices, for which Robust Decision-Making offers no direct guidance.
KW - Adaptation pathways
KW - Deep uncertainty
KW - Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways
KW - Flexibility
KW - Robust Decision-making
KW - Robustness
KW - Scenario discovery
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84991486853&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7bd9cc04-4e53-4c21-9dbc-4912b981e6d7
U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.017
DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.017
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84991486853
SN - 1364-8152
VL - 86
SP - 168
EP - 183
JO - Environmental Modelling & Software
JF - Environmental Modelling & Software
ER -