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Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer : A Model Study. / van Hooijdonk, I. G S; Moene, A. F.; Scheffer, M.; Clercx, H. J H; van de Wiel, B. J H.

In: Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer, Vol. 162, No. 2, 01.02.2017, p. 283-306.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Harvard

van Hooijdonk, IGS, Moene, AF, Scheffer, M, Clercx, HJH & van de Wiel, BJH 2017, 'Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer: A Model Study' Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer, vol. 162, no. 2, pp. 283-306. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-016-0199-9

APA

van Hooijdonk, I. G. S., Moene, A. F., Scheffer, M., Clercx, H. J. H., & van de Wiel, B. J. H. (2017). Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer: A Model Study. Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer, 162(2), 283-306. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-016-0199-9

Vancouver

van Hooijdonk IGS, Moene AF, Scheffer M, Clercx HJH, van de Wiel BJH. Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer: A Model Study. Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. 2017 Feb 1;162(2):283-306. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-016-0199-9

Author

van Hooijdonk, I. G S ; Moene, A. F. ; Scheffer, M. ; Clercx, H. J H ; van de Wiel, B. J H. / Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer : A Model Study. In: Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. 2017 ; Vol. 162, No. 2. pp. 283-306.

BibTeX

@article{66ff62ce021340e08d1361aed4bf0fad,
title = "Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer: A Model Study",
abstract = "The evening transition is investigated in an idealized model for the nocturnal boundary layer. From earlier studies it is known that the nocturnal boundary layer may manifest itself in two distinct regimes, depending on the ambient synoptic conditions: strong-wind or overcast conditions typically lead to weakly stable, turbulent nights; clear-sky and weak-wind conditions, on the other hand, lead to very stable, weakly turbulent conditions. Previously, the dynamical behaviour near the transition between these regimes was investigated in an idealized setting, relying on Monin–Obukhov (MO) similarity to describe turbulent transport. Here, we investigate a similar set-up, using direct numerical simulation; in contrast to MO-based models, this type of simulation does not need to rely on turbulence closure assumptions. We show that previous predictions are verified, but now independent of turbulence parametrizations. Also, it appears that a regime shift to the very stable state is signaled in advance by specific changes in the dynamics of the turbulent boundary layer. Here, we show how these changes may be used to infer a quantitative estimate of the transition point from the weakly stable boundary layer to the very stable boundary layer. In addition, it is shown that the idealized, nocturnal boundary-layer system shares important similarities with generic non-linear dynamical systems that exhibit critical transitions. Therefore, the presence of other, generic early warning signals is tested as well. Indeed, indications are found that such signals are present in stably stratified turbulent flows.",
keywords = "Critical regime transition, Early warning signals, Maximum sustainable heat flux, Minimum wind speed, Nocturnal boundary layer",
author = "{van Hooijdonk}, {I. G S} and Moene, {A. F.} and M. Scheffer and Clercx, {H. J H} and {van de Wiel}, {B. J H}",
year = "2017",
month = "2",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s10546-016-0199-9",
language = "English",
volume = "162",
pages = "283--306",
journal = "Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer",
issn = "0006-8314",
publisher = "Springer",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer

T2 - Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer

AU - van Hooijdonk, I. G S

AU - Moene, A. F.

AU - Scheffer, M.

AU - Clercx, H. J H

AU - van de Wiel, B. J H

PY - 2017/2/1

Y1 - 2017/2/1

N2 - The evening transition is investigated in an idealized model for the nocturnal boundary layer. From earlier studies it is known that the nocturnal boundary layer may manifest itself in two distinct regimes, depending on the ambient synoptic conditions: strong-wind or overcast conditions typically lead to weakly stable, turbulent nights; clear-sky and weak-wind conditions, on the other hand, lead to very stable, weakly turbulent conditions. Previously, the dynamical behaviour near the transition between these regimes was investigated in an idealized setting, relying on Monin–Obukhov (MO) similarity to describe turbulent transport. Here, we investigate a similar set-up, using direct numerical simulation; in contrast to MO-based models, this type of simulation does not need to rely on turbulence closure assumptions. We show that previous predictions are verified, but now independent of turbulence parametrizations. Also, it appears that a regime shift to the very stable state is signaled in advance by specific changes in the dynamics of the turbulent boundary layer. Here, we show how these changes may be used to infer a quantitative estimate of the transition point from the weakly stable boundary layer to the very stable boundary layer. In addition, it is shown that the idealized, nocturnal boundary-layer system shares important similarities with generic non-linear dynamical systems that exhibit critical transitions. Therefore, the presence of other, generic early warning signals is tested as well. Indeed, indications are found that such signals are present in stably stratified turbulent flows.

AB - The evening transition is investigated in an idealized model for the nocturnal boundary layer. From earlier studies it is known that the nocturnal boundary layer may manifest itself in two distinct regimes, depending on the ambient synoptic conditions: strong-wind or overcast conditions typically lead to weakly stable, turbulent nights; clear-sky and weak-wind conditions, on the other hand, lead to very stable, weakly turbulent conditions. Previously, the dynamical behaviour near the transition between these regimes was investigated in an idealized setting, relying on Monin–Obukhov (MO) similarity to describe turbulent transport. Here, we investigate a similar set-up, using direct numerical simulation; in contrast to MO-based models, this type of simulation does not need to rely on turbulence closure assumptions. We show that previous predictions are verified, but now independent of turbulence parametrizations. Also, it appears that a regime shift to the very stable state is signaled in advance by specific changes in the dynamics of the turbulent boundary layer. Here, we show how these changes may be used to infer a quantitative estimate of the transition point from the weakly stable boundary layer to the very stable boundary layer. In addition, it is shown that the idealized, nocturnal boundary-layer system shares important similarities with generic non-linear dynamical systems that exhibit critical transitions. Therefore, the presence of other, generic early warning signals is tested as well. Indeed, indications are found that such signals are present in stably stratified turbulent flows.

KW - Critical regime transition

KW - Early warning signals

KW - Maximum sustainable heat flux

KW - Minimum wind speed

KW - Nocturnal boundary layer

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84991059278&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:66ff62ce-0213-40e0-8d13-61aed4bf0fad

U2 - 10.1007/s10546-016-0199-9

DO - 10.1007/s10546-016-0199-9

M3 - Article

VL - 162

SP - 283

EP - 306

JO - Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer

JF - Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer

SN - 0006-8314

IS - 2

ER -

ID: 12981091