TY - JOUR
T1 - Expert judgement based maintenance decision support method for structures with a long service-life
AU - Ter Berg, C.J.A.
AU - Leontaris, G.
AU - van den Boomen, M.
AU - Spaan, M.T.J.
AU - Wolfert, A.R.M.
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - The optimal moment at which maintenance activities should be performed on structures with long service-life to guarantee the required quality of service is hard to define, due to uncertainties in their deterioration processes. Most of the developed methods and concepts use historical data to predict the deterioration process with deterministic values as a result. Some researchers recognise that probabilistic deterioration models are required for life-cycle models but in practice, however, historical data are often scarce. Moreover, the available data often only inform about a short period of time, while maintenance strategies, technologies, materials and external circumstances change over time. Therefore, the required probabilistic deterioration models cannot be retrieved and remain unproven in life-cycle modelling so far. Hence, this article introduces an expert judgement based Condition Over Time Assessment method that quantifies the uncertainty regarding the period that is required for structural assets to deteriorate to a given condition. The proposed method utilises Cooke’s classical model, which makes use of knowledge and experience of experts, who are weighed according to their performance in judging uncertainty, to assess this period. A bridge-based experiment shows that the proposed method has the potential to provide a means to effectively plan maintenance.
AB - The optimal moment at which maintenance activities should be performed on structures with long service-life to guarantee the required quality of service is hard to define, due to uncertainties in their deterioration processes. Most of the developed methods and concepts use historical data to predict the deterioration process with deterministic values as a result. Some researchers recognise that probabilistic deterioration models are required for life-cycle models but in practice, however, historical data are often scarce. Moreover, the available data often only inform about a short period of time, while maintenance strategies, technologies, materials and external circumstances change over time. Therefore, the required probabilistic deterioration models cannot be retrieved and remain unproven in life-cycle modelling so far. Hence, this article introduces an expert judgement based Condition Over Time Assessment method that quantifies the uncertainty regarding the period that is required for structural assets to deteriorate to a given condition. The proposed method utilises Cooke’s classical model, which makes use of knowledge and experience of experts, who are weighed according to their performance in judging uncertainty, to assess this period. A bridge-based experiment shows that the proposed method has the potential to provide a means to effectively plan maintenance.
KW - Deterioration modelling
KW - engineering asset management
KW - expert judgement
KW - maintenance interval
KW - uncertainty quantification
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061066189&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/15732479.2018.1558270
DO - 10.1080/15732479.2018.1558270
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85061066189
SN - 1573-2479
VL - 15
SP - 492
EP - 503
JO - Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
JF - Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
IS - 4
ER -