TY - JOUR
T1 - Medication-related harm in older adults following hospital discharge
T2 - Development and validation of a prediction tool
AU - Parekh, Nikesh
AU - Ali, Khalid
AU - Davies, John Graham
AU - Stevenson, Jennifer M.
AU - Banya, Winston
AU - Nyangoma, Stephen
AU - Schiff, Rebekah
AU - Van Der Cammen, Tischa
AU - Harchowal, Jatinder
AU - Rajkumar, Chakravarthi
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - Objectives To develop and validate a tool to predict the risk of an older adult experiencing medication-related harm (MRH) requiring healthcare use following hospital discharge. Design, setting, participants Multicentre, prospective cohort study recruiting older adults (≥65 years) discharged from five UK teaching hospitals between 2013 and 2015. Primary outcome measure Participants were followed up for 8 weeks in the community by senior pharmacists to identify MRH (adverse drug reactions, harm from non-adherence, harm from medication error). Three data sources provided MRH and healthcare use information: Hospital readmissions, primary care use, participant telephone interview. Candidate variables for prognostic modelling were selected using two systematic reviews, the views of patients with MRH and an expert panel of clinicians. Multivariable logistic regression with backward elimination, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, was used to develop the PRIME tool. The tool was internally validated. Results 1116 out of 1280 recruited participants completed follow-up (87%). Uncertain MRH cases (â 'possible' and 'aprobable') were excluded, leaving a tool derivation cohort of 818. 119 (15%) participants experienced 'definite' MRH requiring healthcare use and 699 participants did not. Modelling resulted in a prediction tool with eight variables measured at hospital discharge: Age, gender, antiplatelet drug, sodium level, antidiabetic drug, past adverse drug reaction, number of medicines, living alone. The tool's discrimination C-statistic was 0.69 (0.66 after validation) and showed good calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the potential value of the tool to guide clinical decision making compared with alternative approaches. Conclusions The PRIME tool could be used to identify older patients at high risk of MRH requiring healthcare use following hospital discharge. Prior to clinical use we recommend the tool's evaluation in other settings.
AB - Objectives To develop and validate a tool to predict the risk of an older adult experiencing medication-related harm (MRH) requiring healthcare use following hospital discharge. Design, setting, participants Multicentre, prospective cohort study recruiting older adults (≥65 years) discharged from five UK teaching hospitals between 2013 and 2015. Primary outcome measure Participants were followed up for 8 weeks in the community by senior pharmacists to identify MRH (adverse drug reactions, harm from non-adherence, harm from medication error). Three data sources provided MRH and healthcare use information: Hospital readmissions, primary care use, participant telephone interview. Candidate variables for prognostic modelling were selected using two systematic reviews, the views of patients with MRH and an expert panel of clinicians. Multivariable logistic regression with backward elimination, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, was used to develop the PRIME tool. The tool was internally validated. Results 1116 out of 1280 recruited participants completed follow-up (87%). Uncertain MRH cases (â 'possible' and 'aprobable') were excluded, leaving a tool derivation cohort of 818. 119 (15%) participants experienced 'definite' MRH requiring healthcare use and 699 participants did not. Modelling resulted in a prediction tool with eight variables measured at hospital discharge: Age, gender, antiplatelet drug, sodium level, antidiabetic drug, past adverse drug reaction, number of medicines, living alone. The tool's discrimination C-statistic was 0.69 (0.66 after validation) and showed good calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the potential value of the tool to guide clinical decision making compared with alternative approaches. Conclusions The PRIME tool could be used to identify older patients at high risk of MRH requiring healthcare use following hospital discharge. Prior to clinical use we recommend the tool's evaluation in other settings.
KW - healthcare use
KW - hospital discharge
KW - Medication harm
KW - older adults
KW - risk prediction
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85072521849&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1136/bmjqs-2019-009587
DO - 10.1136/bmjqs-2019-009587
M3 - Article
C2 - 31527053
AN - SCOPUS:85072521849
SN - 2044-5415
VL - 29 (2020)
SP - 142
EP - 153
JO - BMJ Quality and Safety
JF - BMJ Quality and Safety
IS - 2
ER -
