MVMO-Based Identification of Key Input Variables and Design of Decision Trees for Transient Stability Assessment in Power Systems With High Penetration Levels of Wind Power

Unlike synchronous generators, wind turbines cannot directly respond to large disturbances, which may cause transient instability, due to their power electronic-based interface and maximum power control strategy. To effectively monitor the influence of wind turbines, this paper proposes an approach that combines decision trees (DTs), and a newly developed variant of the Mean-Variance Mapping Optimization (MVMO) algorithm, to simultaneously tackle the problem of selecting the key variables that properly reflect the transient stability performance of a system dominated by wind power, and designing the DTs for reliable online assessment of transient stability. The notion of key variables refers to the set of variables that are closely related to the modified power system transient stability performance as a consequence of the replacement of conventional power plants by wind generators. The selection of key variables is formulated as a non-linear optimization problem with weight factors as decision variables and is tackled by MVMO. A weight factor is assigned to each key variable candidate, and its value is considered to reflect the degree of influence of the key variable candidate on the splitting property and estimation accuracy of the DTs. The samples of the key variable candidates and the initialized weight factors are used to build the first group of DTs. Then, MVMO iteratively evolves the weight factors according to its special mapping function with minimizing DTs' estimation error. According to the final list of optimized weight factors, system operators can select a reduced set of variables with the largest weight factors as key variables, depending on the resulting accuracy of the DTs. Meanwhile, DTs built by using key variables are considered as the optimal performance trees for transient stability estimation. In this way, the selection of key variables and the development of DTs are made jointly and automatically, without the interference of the users of the DTs. Test results on the modified IEEE 9 bus system and a synthetic model of a real power system show that the proposed method can correctly identify the set of key variables related to wind turbine dynamics, as well as its ability to provide a reliable estimation of the transient stability margin.