TY - JOUR
T1 - Policy and society related implications of automated driving
T2 - a review of literature and directions for future research
AU - Milakis, Dimitris
AU - van Arem, Bart
AU - van Wee, Bert
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - In this paper, the potential effects of automated driving that are relevant to policy and society are explored, findings discussed in literature about those effects are reviewed and areas for future research are identified. The structure of our review is based on the ripple effect concept, which represents the implications of automated vehicles at three different stages: first-order (traffic, travel cost, and travel choices), second-order (vehicle ownership and sharing, location choices and land use and transport infrastructure) and third-order (energy consumption, air pollution, safety, social equity, economy and public health). Our review shows that first-order impacts on road capacity, fuel efficiency, emissions and accidents risk are expected to be beneficial. The magnitude of these benefits will likely increase with the level of automation and cooperation and with the penetration rate of these systems. The synergistic effects between vehicle automation, electrification and sharification can multiply these benefits. However, studies confirm that automated vehicles can induce additional travel demand because of more and longer vehicle trips. Potential land use changes have not been included in these estimations about excessive travel demand. Other third-order benefits on safety, economy, public health and social equity still remain unclear. Therefore, the balance between the short-term benefits and long-term impacts of vehicle automation remains an open question.
AB - In this paper, the potential effects of automated driving that are relevant to policy and society are explored, findings discussed in literature about those effects are reviewed and areas for future research are identified. The structure of our review is based on the ripple effect concept, which represents the implications of automated vehicles at three different stages: first-order (traffic, travel cost, and travel choices), second-order (vehicle ownership and sharing, location choices and land use and transport infrastructure) and third-order (energy consumption, air pollution, safety, social equity, economy and public health). Our review shows that first-order impacts on road capacity, fuel efficiency, emissions and accidents risk are expected to be beneficial. The magnitude of these benefits will likely increase with the level of automation and cooperation and with the penetration rate of these systems. The synergistic effects between vehicle automation, electrification and sharification can multiply these benefits. However, studies confirm that automated vehicles can induce additional travel demand because of more and longer vehicle trips. Potential land use changes have not been included in these estimations about excessive travel demand. Other third-order benefits on safety, economy, public health and social equity still remain unclear. Therefore, the balance between the short-term benefits and long-term impacts of vehicle automation remains an open question.
KW - Automated driving
KW - policy and societal implications
KW - ripple effect
KW - first, second, and third order impacts
UR - http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2b13c109-0fdc-4e51-804a-7ef4fec62afb
U2 - 10.1080/15472450.2017.1291351
DO - 10.1080/15472450.2017.1291351
M3 - Article
SN - 1547-2450
JO - Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems: technology, planning, and operations
JF - Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems: technology, planning, and operations
ER -