TY - JOUR
T1 - Probabilistic assessments of flood defence performance subject to induced seismicity
AU - Jongejan, Ruben
AU - Drosos, Vasileios
AU - Giannakou, Amalia
AU - Chacko, Jacob
AU - Tasiopoulou, Panagiota
AU - Zuideveld-Venema, Nelleke
AU - de Wit, Sjoerd
AU - Huissoon, Hans
PY - 2018
Y1 - 2018
N2 - Gas extraction in the Groningen Province in the Netherlands has caused seismicity. A method was needed for probabilistic assessments of the seismic performance of the levees that protect low-lying polders against flooding. By combining the First Order Reliability Method with response surfaces it proved possible to strongly reduce the required number of simulations with advanced numerical models to obtain reliable failure probability estimates. To illustrate the workings of the method, an application to a levee cross-section along the Eemscanal with a sheet pile wall is presented. The probabilistic method can be used for probabilistic assessments and the probability-based calibration of partial factors, and it could serve as a starting point for quantitative risk analyses for levee systems in earthquake prone regions.
AB - Gas extraction in the Groningen Province in the Netherlands has caused seismicity. A method was needed for probabilistic assessments of the seismic performance of the levees that protect low-lying polders against flooding. By combining the First Order Reliability Method with response surfaces it proved possible to strongly reduce the required number of simulations with advanced numerical models to obtain reliable failure probability estimates. To illustrate the workings of the method, an application to a levee cross-section along the Eemscanal with a sheet pile wall is presented. The probabilistic method can be used for probabilistic assessments and the probability-based calibration of partial factors, and it could serve as a starting point for quantitative risk analyses for levee systems in earthquake prone regions.
KW - Flood-control levees
KW - FORM
KW - Geotechnical earthquake engineering
KW - Probabilistic analysis
KW - Response surfaces
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85050081378&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10518-018-0521-7
DO - 10.1007/s10518-018-0521-7
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85050081378
SN - 1570-761X
VL - 17 (2019)
SP - 4517
EP - 4537
JO - Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
JF - Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
ER -