TY - JOUR
T1 - Renewable energy perspectives for the North African electricity systems
T2 - A comparative analysis of model-based scenario studies
AU - Brand, Bernhard
AU - Blok, Kornelis
PY - 2015/1/1
Y1 - 2015/1/1
N2 - Prospects for the integration of power markets and the expansion of renewable energy have recently triggered a number of publications dealing with transformation scenarios of the North African electricity systems. This paper compares five studies using economic electricity supply- and demand models to assess possible development pathways of the North African power systems from today until 2030 and 2050. The analysis shows that distinct modeling methodologies as well as different approaches to scenario design and parameter assumptions can strongly influence the studies' results, leading to very heterogenous projections of North Africa's power generation structures as well as the patterns of electricity exchange with other regions, like Europe. Common findings of the studies are that the surplus costs of capital-intensive renewable energy expansion in North Africa can in most cases be offset by avoided fuel costs and avoided investments in conventional power plants. All studies further agree that increased transnational cooperation, notably in terms of market integration and cross-border power exchanges, can bring about important economic advantages for the North African power sector. Renewable energy expansion could also drive electricity exports to Europe, but in integrated power market schemes, such exports only become viable with a very high share of renewable energy exceeding 60% of the North African power demand.
AB - Prospects for the integration of power markets and the expansion of renewable energy have recently triggered a number of publications dealing with transformation scenarios of the North African electricity systems. This paper compares five studies using economic electricity supply- and demand models to assess possible development pathways of the North African power systems from today until 2030 and 2050. The analysis shows that distinct modeling methodologies as well as different approaches to scenario design and parameter assumptions can strongly influence the studies' results, leading to very heterogenous projections of North Africa's power generation structures as well as the patterns of electricity exchange with other regions, like Europe. Common findings of the studies are that the surplus costs of capital-intensive renewable energy expansion in North Africa can in most cases be offset by avoided fuel costs and avoided investments in conventional power plants. All studies further agree that increased transnational cooperation, notably in terms of market integration and cross-border power exchanges, can bring about important economic advantages for the North African power sector. Renewable energy expansion could also drive electricity exports to Europe, but in integrated power market schemes, such exports only become viable with a very high share of renewable energy exceeding 60% of the North African power demand.
KW - Electricity system modeling
KW - Meta study
KW - North Africa
KW - Renewable energy integration
KW - Scenario analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84912112406&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.esr.2014.11.002
DO - 10.1016/j.esr.2014.11.002
M3 - Review article
AN - SCOPUS:84912112406
SN - 2211-467X
VL - 6
SP - 1
EP - 11
JO - Energy Strategy Reviews
JF - Energy Strategy Reviews
ER -