Strategies in an uncertain world: A Systems Dynamics analysis of different flood protection strategies

Flood defences are a key issue in low lying coastal areas. These defences can protect the economy of hinterland regions along with countless lives. A onceptually simple abstraction of the complexity of a flood defence system is formulated in system dynamics. This model is based on a ring dike concept as used in The Netherlands. The model is composed of three sub-models: the levee life cycle, the average height of the levees and the safety of the inhabitants. Floods are introduced as an external event. There are four key inputs which are meant to represent the diversity of policies that can be adopted in dealing with
flooding with different countries. They are the investment level, the public perception of a government's action, the expertise of a certain country and the resource allocation. An exploratory study across different flood regimes displays expected results, with higher safety for higher investment, higher expertise and a higher level of public perception. A policy analysis study also details different policies for imaginary countries along with their associated results. The outcomes indicate that the model can be useful for policy selection and insight but should not be used to judge a specific country's policies.