• 1570512103

    Accepted author manuscript, 393 KB, PDF document


It is often assumed that a network will not be struck by multiple disasters in a relatively short period of time; that is, a subsequent disaster will not strike within the recovery phase of a previous disaster. However, recent events have shown that combinations of disasters are not implausible. This realization calls for a new perspective on how we assess the vulnerability of our networks and shows a need for a framework to assess the vulnerability of networks to successive independent disasters. We propose a network and disaster model capable of modeling a sequence of disasters in time, while taking into account recovery operations. Based on that model, we develop both an exact and a Monte Carlo method to compute the vulnerability of a network to successive disasters. By applying our approach to real empirical disaster data, we show that the probability of a second disaster striking the network during recovery can be significant even for short repair times. Our framework is a first step towards determining the vulnerability of networks to such successive disasters.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIFIP Networking 2019
Number of pages9
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-903176-16-4
ISBN (Print)978-1-7281-3671-4
Publication statusPublished - 2019
Event2019 IFIP Networking Conference, IFIP Networking 2019 - Warsaw, Poland
Duration: 20 May 201922 May 2019


Conference2019 IFIP Networking Conference, IFIP Networking 2019

    Research areas

  • Network resilience, Disaster awareness

ID: 55612964