Standard

Time-dependent reliability in flood protection decision making in The Netherlands. / Klerk, Wouter Jan; Kanning, Wim; Kok, Matthijs.

Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World: Proceedings of ESREL 2018. CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group, 2018. p. 3167-3174.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionScientificpeer-review

Harvard

Klerk, WJ, Kanning, W & Kok, M 2018, Time-dependent reliability in flood protection decision making in The Netherlands. in Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World: Proceedings of ESREL 2018. CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group, pp. 3167-3174.

APA

Klerk, W. J., Kanning, W., & Kok, M. (2018). Time-dependent reliability in flood protection decision making in The Netherlands. In Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World: Proceedings of ESREL 2018 (pp. 3167-3174). CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group.

Vancouver

Klerk WJ, Kanning W, Kok M. Time-dependent reliability in flood protection decision making in The Netherlands. In Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World: Proceedings of ESREL 2018. CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group. 2018. p. 3167-3174

Author

Klerk, Wouter Jan ; Kanning, Wim ; Kok, Matthijs. / Time-dependent reliability in flood protection decision making in The Netherlands. Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World: Proceedings of ESREL 2018. CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group, 2018. pp. 3167-3174

BibTeX

@inproceedings{e44b54e7a36e44e7a90d0d715d1e30b0,
title = "Time-dependent reliability in flood protection decision making in The Netherlands",
abstract = "Since 2017 Dutch flood protection standards are defined as target flood probabilities that all primary flood defences have to comply with by 2050. Explicitly accounting for uncertainties in probability distributions of load and resistance is an integral part of estimating the actual flood probability. Based on such estimates, many flood defences will be reinforced in the coming years, for design lifetimes that are generally 25-100 years. Therefore it is important that we correctly take into account time-dependence of both load and resistance during the lifetime. Loads are typically uncorrelated from year to year, whereas strength parameters exhibit significant correlation over time. This correlation over time of strength parameters can significantly reduce the failure rate and increase the lifetime reliability of a flood protection structure. In this paper we show the implications of time-dependent reliability for a set of illustrative cases. We consider the effect of different degrees of temporal dependence on reliability, lifetime and relative cost savings. The cases show that for common configurations, the inclusion of time-dependent effects, especially the correlation in time of strength variables, can increase the lifetime of a flood protection structure by up to 50{\%}.",
author = "Klerk, {Wouter Jan} and Wim Kanning and Matthijs Kok",
year = "2018",
month = "6",
day = "18",
language = "English",
pages = "3167--3174",
booktitle = "Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World",
publisher = "CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group",

}

RIS

TY - GEN

T1 - Time-dependent reliability in flood protection decision making in The Netherlands

AU - Klerk, Wouter Jan

AU - Kanning, Wim

AU - Kok, Matthijs

PY - 2018/6/18

Y1 - 2018/6/18

N2 - Since 2017 Dutch flood protection standards are defined as target flood probabilities that all primary flood defences have to comply with by 2050. Explicitly accounting for uncertainties in probability distributions of load and resistance is an integral part of estimating the actual flood probability. Based on such estimates, many flood defences will be reinforced in the coming years, for design lifetimes that are generally 25-100 years. Therefore it is important that we correctly take into account time-dependence of both load and resistance during the lifetime. Loads are typically uncorrelated from year to year, whereas strength parameters exhibit significant correlation over time. This correlation over time of strength parameters can significantly reduce the failure rate and increase the lifetime reliability of a flood protection structure. In this paper we show the implications of time-dependent reliability for a set of illustrative cases. We consider the effect of different degrees of temporal dependence on reliability, lifetime and relative cost savings. The cases show that for common configurations, the inclusion of time-dependent effects, especially the correlation in time of strength variables, can increase the lifetime of a flood protection structure by up to 50%.

AB - Since 2017 Dutch flood protection standards are defined as target flood probabilities that all primary flood defences have to comply with by 2050. Explicitly accounting for uncertainties in probability distributions of load and resistance is an integral part of estimating the actual flood probability. Based on such estimates, many flood defences will be reinforced in the coming years, for design lifetimes that are generally 25-100 years. Therefore it is important that we correctly take into account time-dependence of both load and resistance during the lifetime. Loads are typically uncorrelated from year to year, whereas strength parameters exhibit significant correlation over time. This correlation over time of strength parameters can significantly reduce the failure rate and increase the lifetime reliability of a flood protection structure. In this paper we show the implications of time-dependent reliability for a set of illustrative cases. We consider the effect of different degrees of temporal dependence on reliability, lifetime and relative cost savings. The cases show that for common configurations, the inclusion of time-dependent effects, especially the correlation in time of strength variables, can increase the lifetime of a flood protection structure by up to 50%.

M3 - Conference contribution

SP - 3167

EP - 3174

BT - Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World

PB - CRC Press / Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group

ER -

ID: 45521163