Uncertainties and Margins in the Ship Propulsion System Design Process

A Vrijdag, P de Vos

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

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Abstract

An important aspect for a new-built vessel is the contract speed. Not reaching the contract speed can lead to penalties for the shipbuilder and dissatisfaction for the customer, while an under-predicted contract speed can lead to non-competitive design and a lower income for the shipbuilder. The performance of a new-built vessel is uncertain due to the uncertainties that are involved in the design of the ship and its propulsion installation. Another type of uncertainty is introduced during the full scale trial measurements at which the contract speed is to be demonstrated. This paper aims at quantification of the uncertainties that are involved in the predicted performance of a ship in terms of predicted trial ship speed. This is done by systematic analysis of the propagation of uncertainty from input (design) variables up to the predicted trial speed. An 80m, 22 kts Offshore Patrol Vessel is used as a case study. The effect of uncertainty reduction by means of model testing is analysed and discussed.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the International Naval Engineering Conference and Exhibition (INEC)
EditorsCJ Newell
PublisherInstitute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology
Pages618-630
Number of pages13
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Event11th international naval engineering conference and exhibition, edinburgh, uk - s.l.
Duration: 15 May 201217 May 2012

Conference

Conference11th international naval engineering conference and exhibition, edinburgh, uk
Period15/05/1217/05/12

Bibliographical note

Accepted Author Manuscript

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