TY - JOUR
T1 - Uncertainty in complex three-dimensional sediment transport models
T2 - equifinality in a model application of the Ems Estuary, the Netherlands
AU - van Maren, Dirk Sebastiaan
AU - Cronin, Katherine
PY - 2016/12/1
Y1 - 2016/12/1
N2 - Estuarine suspended sediment transport models are typically calibrated against suspended sediment concentration data. These data typically cover a limited range of the actual suspended sediment concentration dynamics, constrained in either time or space. As a result of these data limitations, the available data can be reproduced with complex 3D transport models through multiple sets of model calibration parameters. These various model parameter sets influence the relative importance of transport processes such as settling, deposition, erosion, or mixing. As a result, multiple model parameter sets may reproduce sediment dynamics in tidal channels (where most data is typically collected) with the same degree of accuracy but simulate notably different sediment concentration patterns elsewhere (e.g. on the tidal flats). Different combinations of model input parameters leading to the same result are known as equifinality. The effect of equifinality on predictive model capabilities is investigated with a complex three-dimensional sediment transport model of a turbid estuary which is subject to several human interventions. The effect of two human interventions (offshore disposal of dredged sediment and restoration of the tidal channel profile) was numerically examined with several equifinal model settings. The computed effect of these two human interventions was relatively weakly influenced by the model settings, strengthening confidence in the numerical model predictions.
AB - Estuarine suspended sediment transport models are typically calibrated against suspended sediment concentration data. These data typically cover a limited range of the actual suspended sediment concentration dynamics, constrained in either time or space. As a result of these data limitations, the available data can be reproduced with complex 3D transport models through multiple sets of model calibration parameters. These various model parameter sets influence the relative importance of transport processes such as settling, deposition, erosion, or mixing. As a result, multiple model parameter sets may reproduce sediment dynamics in tidal channels (where most data is typically collected) with the same degree of accuracy but simulate notably different sediment concentration patterns elsewhere (e.g. on the tidal flats). Different combinations of model input parameters leading to the same result are known as equifinality. The effect of equifinality on predictive model capabilities is investigated with a complex three-dimensional sediment transport model of a turbid estuary which is subject to several human interventions. The effect of two human interventions (offshore disposal of dredged sediment and restoration of the tidal channel profile) was numerically examined with several equifinal model settings. The computed effect of these two human interventions was relatively weakly influenced by the model settings, strengthening confidence in the numerical model predictions.
KW - Ems Estuary
KW - Equifinality
KW - Model accuracy
KW - Numerical modelling
KW - Sediment transport
KW - Uncertainty
UR - http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:482570f3-49d5-48c6-9654-1b036911314c
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84990888170&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10236-016-1000-9
DO - 10.1007/s10236-016-1000-9
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84990888170
SN - 1616-7341
VL - 66
SP - 1665
EP - 1679
JO - Ocean Dynamics: theoretical, computational oceanography and monitoring
JF - Ocean Dynamics: theoretical, computational oceanography and monitoring
IS - 12
ER -