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Understanding and Reducing False Alarms in Observational Fog Prediction. / Izett, Jonathan G.; van de Wiel, Bas J.H.; Baas, Peter; Bosveld, Fred C.

In: Boundary-Layer Meteorology, Vol. 169, No. 2, 03.07.2018, p. 347-372.

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Izett, Jonathan G. ; van de Wiel, Bas J.H. ; Baas, Peter ; Bosveld, Fred C. / Understanding and Reducing False Alarms in Observational Fog Prediction. In: Boundary-Layer Meteorology. 2018 ; Vol. 169, No. 2. pp. 347-372.

BibTeX

@article{1951ed835bd047f3b38d1e84f97362c4,
title = "Understanding and Reducing False Alarms in Observational Fog Prediction",
abstract = "The reduction in visibility that accompanies fog events presents a hazard to human safety and navigation. However, accurate fog prediction remains elusive, with numerical methods often unable to capture the conditions of fog formation, and observational methods having high false-alarm rates in order to obtain high hit rates of prediction. In this work, 5 years of observations from the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research are used to further investigate how false alarms may be reduced using the statistical method for diagnosing radiation-fog events from observations developed by Menut et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 150:277–297, 2014). The method is assessed for forecast lead times of 1–6 h and implementing four optimization schemes to tune the prediction for different needs, compromising between confidence and risk. Prediction scores improve significantly with decreased lead time, with the possibility of achieving a hit rate of over 90% and a false-alarm rate of just 13%. In total, a further 31 combinations of predictive variables beyond the original combination are explored (including mostly, e.g., variables related to moisture and static stability of the boundary layer). Little change to the prediction scores indicates any appropriate combination of variables that measure saturation, turbulence, and near-surface cooling can be used. The remaining false-alarm periods are manually assessed, identifying the lack of spatio–temporal information (such as the temporal evolution of the local conditions and the advective history of the airmass) as the ultimate limiting factor in the methodology{\textquoteright}s predictive capabilities. Future observational studies are recommended that investigate the near-surface evolution of fog and the role of non-local heterogeneity on fog formation.",
keywords = "Cabauw site, False alarms, Fog forecasting, Observations of fog, Radiation fog",
author = "Izett, {Jonathan G.} and {van de Wiel}, {Bas J.H.} and Peter Baas and Bosveld, {Fred C.}",
year = "2018",
month = jul,
day = "3",
doi = "10.1007/s10546-018-0374-2",
language = "English",
volume = "169",
pages = "347--372",
journal = "Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer",
issn = "0006-8314",
publisher = "Springer",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Understanding and Reducing False Alarms in Observational Fog Prediction

AU - Izett, Jonathan G.

AU - van de Wiel, Bas J.H.

AU - Baas, Peter

AU - Bosveld, Fred C.

PY - 2018/7/3

Y1 - 2018/7/3

N2 - The reduction in visibility that accompanies fog events presents a hazard to human safety and navigation. However, accurate fog prediction remains elusive, with numerical methods often unable to capture the conditions of fog formation, and observational methods having high false-alarm rates in order to obtain high hit rates of prediction. In this work, 5 years of observations from the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research are used to further investigate how false alarms may be reduced using the statistical method for diagnosing radiation-fog events from observations developed by Menut et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 150:277–297, 2014). The method is assessed for forecast lead times of 1–6 h and implementing four optimization schemes to tune the prediction for different needs, compromising between confidence and risk. Prediction scores improve significantly with decreased lead time, with the possibility of achieving a hit rate of over 90% and a false-alarm rate of just 13%. In total, a further 31 combinations of predictive variables beyond the original combination are explored (including mostly, e.g., variables related to moisture and static stability of the boundary layer). Little change to the prediction scores indicates any appropriate combination of variables that measure saturation, turbulence, and near-surface cooling can be used. The remaining false-alarm periods are manually assessed, identifying the lack of spatio–temporal information (such as the temporal evolution of the local conditions and the advective history of the airmass) as the ultimate limiting factor in the methodology’s predictive capabilities. Future observational studies are recommended that investigate the near-surface evolution of fog and the role of non-local heterogeneity on fog formation.

AB - The reduction in visibility that accompanies fog events presents a hazard to human safety and navigation. However, accurate fog prediction remains elusive, with numerical methods often unable to capture the conditions of fog formation, and observational methods having high false-alarm rates in order to obtain high hit rates of prediction. In this work, 5 years of observations from the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research are used to further investigate how false alarms may be reduced using the statistical method for diagnosing radiation-fog events from observations developed by Menut et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 150:277–297, 2014). The method is assessed for forecast lead times of 1–6 h and implementing four optimization schemes to tune the prediction for different needs, compromising between confidence and risk. Prediction scores improve significantly with decreased lead time, with the possibility of achieving a hit rate of over 90% and a false-alarm rate of just 13%. In total, a further 31 combinations of predictive variables beyond the original combination are explored (including mostly, e.g., variables related to moisture and static stability of the boundary layer). Little change to the prediction scores indicates any appropriate combination of variables that measure saturation, turbulence, and near-surface cooling can be used. The remaining false-alarm periods are manually assessed, identifying the lack of spatio–temporal information (such as the temporal evolution of the local conditions and the advective history of the airmass) as the ultimate limiting factor in the methodology’s predictive capabilities. Future observational studies are recommended that investigate the near-surface evolution of fog and the role of non-local heterogeneity on fog formation.

KW - Cabauw site

KW - False alarms

KW - Fog forecasting

KW - Observations of fog

KW - Radiation fog

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85049557753&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1951ed83-5bd0-47f3-b38d-1e84f97362c4

U2 - 10.1007/s10546-018-0374-2

DO - 10.1007/s10546-018-0374-2

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85049557753

VL - 169

SP - 347

EP - 372

JO - Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer

JF - Boundary-Layer Meteorology: an international journal of physical and biological processes in the atmospheric boundary layer

SN - 0006-8314

IS - 2

ER -

ID: 45748921