Visualising risk in generating capacity adequacy studies using clustering and prototypes

Simon H. Tindemans; Goran Strbac

doi:10.1109/PESGM.2015.7285816

Visualising risk in generating capacity adequacy studies using clustering and prototypes

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volume › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Generating capacity adequacy studies play a significant role in long term capacity planning. Risks of capacity deficits are usually reported in the form of one or more average quantities, which cannot fully convey the nature of the risks being faced. Chronological Monte Carlo simulations may be used to construct comprehensive multi-dimensional risk profiles, but such profiles tend to be difficult to interpret. This paper proposes the use of a clustering method to partition the risk profile into clusters of similar outcomes with associated probabilities. The results are presented in accessible tabular form, and prototypical scenarios can be analysed in detail to provide further insight.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	2015 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2015
Place of Publication	Piscataway, NJ
Publisher	IEEE
Pages	1-5
Number of pages	5
Volume	2015-September
ISBN (Electronic)	978-1-4673-8040-9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/PESGM.2015.7285816
Publication status	Published - 30 Sept 2015
Externally published	Yes
Event	IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2015 - Denver, United States Duration: 26 Jul 2015 → 30 Jul 2015

Conference

Conference	IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2015
Country/Territory	United States
City	Denver
Period	26/07/15 → 30/07/15

Keywords

clustering methods
generating capacity adequacy
Monte Carlo simulations
risk measures

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1109/PESGM.2015.7285816

Cite this

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title = "Visualising risk in generating capacity adequacy studies using clustering and prototypes",

abstract = "Generating capacity adequacy studies play a significant role in long term capacity planning. Risks of capacity deficits are usually reported in the form of one or more average quantities, which cannot fully convey the nature of the risks being faced. Chronological Monte Carlo simulations may be used to construct comprehensive multi-dimensional risk profiles, but such profiles tend to be difficult to interpret. This paper proposes the use of a clustering method to partition the risk profile into clusters of similar outcomes with associated probabilities. The results are presented in accessible tabular form, and prototypical scenarios can be analysed in detail to provide further insight.",

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author = "Tindemans, {Simon H.} and Goran Strbac",

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Tindemans, SH & Strbac, G 2015, Visualising risk in generating capacity adequacy studies using clustering and prototypes. in 2015 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2015. vol. 2015-September, 7285816, IEEE, Piscataway, NJ, pp. 1-5, IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2015, Denver, United States, 26/07/15. https://doi.org/10.1109/PESGM.2015.7285816

Visualising risk in generating capacity adequacy studies using clustering and prototypes. / Tindemans, Simon H.; Strbac, Goran.
2015 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2015. Vol. 2015-September Piscataway, NJ: IEEE, 2015. p. 1-5 7285816.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volume › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

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AU - Strbac, Goran

PY - 2015/9/30

Y1 - 2015/9/30

N2 - Generating capacity adequacy studies play a significant role in long term capacity planning. Risks of capacity deficits are usually reported in the form of one or more average quantities, which cannot fully convey the nature of the risks being faced. Chronological Monte Carlo simulations may be used to construct comprehensive multi-dimensional risk profiles, but such profiles tend to be difficult to interpret. This paper proposes the use of a clustering method to partition the risk profile into clusters of similar outcomes with associated probabilities. The results are presented in accessible tabular form, and prototypical scenarios can be analysed in detail to provide further insight.

AB - Generating capacity adequacy studies play a significant role in long term capacity planning. Risks of capacity deficits are usually reported in the form of one or more average quantities, which cannot fully convey the nature of the risks being faced. Chronological Monte Carlo simulations may be used to construct comprehensive multi-dimensional risk profiles, but such profiles tend to be difficult to interpret. This paper proposes the use of a clustering method to partition the risk profile into clusters of similar outcomes with associated probabilities. The results are presented in accessible tabular form, and prototypical scenarios can be analysed in detail to provide further insight.

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KW - Monte Carlo simulations

KW - risk measures

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T2 - IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2015

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ER -

Visualising risk in generating capacity adequacy studies using clustering and prototypes

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

UN SDGs

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